Here's a forward-looking new book that realistically forecasts the changes in mobile communications over the next 20 years to help you make informed decisions and develop successful strategies that address the future challenges of this industry. This resource provides organizations with specific recommendations on the direction of technological development, and examines critical constraints and drivers such as the limits of efficiency, standardization, radio spectrum, industry structure, and user requirements. From cellular and fixed wireless systems - to wireless local area and personal area networks, this cutting-edge reference gives you an easy-to-understand overview of current and emerging wireless technologies and systems. The book predicts network structure in 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020, and looks at a day in the life of users in 2010 and 2020. Contributions are included from leading industry experts Mark Birchler, Larry Marturano, Frank Yester, Michel Mouly, Tero Ojanpera, Malcolm Oliphant, Siegmund Redl, Mike Short and the UK Radiocommunications Agency.
Preface.; Part 1: Why It Is Worthwhile ; Why Forecast the Future? - Why the Forecast Will Be Wrong. Key Factors Influencing the Future. Methodology Adopted in this Book. Structure of this Book.; Part 2: What Drives the Future ; What Might the End User Want? - Why What the End User Wants Is Critical. What Are People Prepared to Pay for? What They Have Today What They Want Now. What They Might Want In The Future.; The Pieces of the Puzzle - The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position. Wireless Communications. How Well Does the Current Position Match User Requirements?; Part 3: What Limits the Future ; Overview of Technology Development. - Overriding Principles of Wireless Communications. Laws Shaping Technical Development. The Problems Associated With Small Cells Technical Developments in Wireless in the Last 20 Years. Summary of the Key Technical Issues.; Nontechnical Constraints On The Future -Introduction. Standards. Spectrum. Finance. Environmental Issues. Billing, Fraud Security, And Numbering Issues. Summary Of Nontechnical Constraints.; Organizations and Strategies -Introduction. Today 's Wireless Communications Companies. Strategy. How Is Strategy Developed? A Case Study in Strategic and Organizational Behavior. How Is the Future InventedDo We Control It? Key Issues for Organizations and Strategy.; Part 4: Views of the Future ; How A 20-Year Forecast Might Have Looked In 1980 - A Look Back In History. How Might An Expert Have Predicted The Next 20 Years? What Actually Transpired? How Significant Are The Differences? What Lessons Can Be Learned And What Is Different Now? What The Experts Say-The Next Seven Chapters.; Forecasting the Future: A Technologist 's View -Introduction. Key Factors. Applications. Wide Area Cellular System Considerations. Nomadic and Fixed Networks. Business, Regulatory, and Standards. Public Acceptance. Future Scenarios. A Day in the Life: 20 Years Out.; A Bold View of the future -Introduction. Cellular Data. Centrifugism Of Services. The Operator Role Model. Overall Conclusion.; Realizing The Mobile Information Society -Introduction. Air Interface Development. Network Development. Future Scenarios. Concluding Remarks.; Learning From The Past -Introduction. Peter in 2018. The Precellular Age. The First Generation. The Second Generation. The Third Generation. The Post - 3G World. Constraints on the Mobile Wireless Future. Conclusion.; When My Kids Are in their Twenties -Introduction. A Look Back. The Transition from 2G to 3G. The Next Generation at the Doorstep. New Technologies, Features, and Applications. Standards and New Technologies.; Communications Cocktail - The Current Communications Environment-A Mix of Public and Private Systems. Key Market TrendsPersonalization, Applications, and Location. Technology Trends. Regulatory Issues and Opportunities. The Future as a Cocktail of Different Communications Solutions. Conclusion.; Mapping the Future of Convergence and Spectrum Management - Approach. Convergence Scenarios.; Summary of the Views of the Experts - Contents.Introduction. Content and Services. The Personal Communication. The Operators. Other Wireless Networks. Technological Issues. The Risks. Possible Future Scenarios. Key Points Raised by Each Contributor.; A Discussion of the Key Issues - Summary of the Key Developments Required. Summary of Key Constraints. Examining The Developments Required. Summary of which Issues Will Be Solved and by When.; A Future Road Map - Integrating the View of the Experts with those Developed Here. The Overall Network Architecture. A Future Road Map. A Vision of Communications in 2010. A Vision of Communications in 2020. Key Uncertainties. The Future in Three Pages. What Should We Be Doing Now?; List of Acronyms. About the Authors. Index.
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William Webb
William Webb is director of strategy at Motorola. He is a fellow of the IEE, a senior member of the IEEE, and a chartered engineer. Dr. Webb holds four patents and has also authored Introduction to Wireless Local Loop, Second Edition; The Complete Wireless Communications Professional; and Understanding Cellular Radio (Artech House 2000, 1999, 1998). He received both a Ph.D. in mobile radio and an M.B.A. from Southampton University. He is listed in 'Who's Who in America'.